Simulations
Institutional strategy, played out.
Each simulation puts you in charge of one institution inside a real reform problem. You see what that institution could plausibly know, you hold the powers it actually has, and you negotiate with the others for everything else.
They are built on published IEI research and carry its evidence grades. There is no omnipotent planner, no leaderboard and no single score. The debrief asks three questions instead: who paid, what became enforceable, and what would have changed the result.
A strategic simulation of financial reconstruction, power, finance, technology and trust.
Lebanon 2036: The Trust Bargain
The losses already happened. Can you build a settlement anyone will believe?
Lebanon 2036: The Trust Bargain is a strategic simulation built for executive education and policy analysis on the country's financial reconstruction. Grounded in the research of Zakaryae Boudi, it sets aside the reassuring mechanics of building things and stays with the harder problem: allocating losses that have already been incurred, exercising institutional power that is always partial, and rebuilding public trust that no instrument can manufacture. Players hold a specific entity — the central bank, the finance ministry, a depositor union — and negotiate inside real legal, financial and ethical limits, where every decision carries a traceable accounting consequence. It is a disciplined laboratory for one question: whether a credible settlement can be reached among stakeholders who do not trust each other and do not have to agree.
- Conservation is enforced by the engine, not by the referee: a move can recognise, defer, finance, reallocate or disguise a loss, and never delete it.
- Nine validation gates — authority, sequence, sources and uses, capacity, coalition, operations, distribution, adoption, delayed effects — explain what is missing instead of refusing you.
- Counterparties are scripted institutions with published red lines, so a player who reads them and takes them seriously can reason a package through.
- Every figure carries its evidence grade, source and date, and contested ranges are shown as ranges.
Seven years on, the losses have not moved. They have simply not been assigned — which means they are being paid, every day, by whoever cannot wait. Your job is to move that bar. You cannot shrink it.
- Frozen deposits
- 90USD bn
- Legacy check market price
- 17cents per dollar
- Voluntary re-engagement
- 3USD bn fresh deposits
Method
Built to be argued with, not believed.
Every number explains itself
Figures carry an evidence grade, a source and a date. Where the underlying research reports a contested range, the range is shown rather than collapsed into a convenient point estimate.
Deterministic, and replayable
No model sits in the loop. One seed replays byte-identical, which means a session can be reopened and argued over rather than merely recounted — and the same world can be replayed from another institution’s chair.
Not a forecast
Output generated by play is graded SIM and can never be promoted into evidence about the world. Nothing here is legal, financial, humanitarian or investment advice.
Simulations are part of the Institute’s member programme. A free account is enough to play the open scenarios — your world is saved to it, so you can stop after one turn and pick it up later.